Syria Is Triumphant, But Turkey Wants To Shuffle The Cards Some More
By Saman Mohammadi – The Excavator. – Events in the Middle East are spinning out of control, as Turkey continues its hostilities against its neighbour. Turkey claims that Syria initiated the conflict, but no one is buying it.
After being exposed as a liar and a graceless politician in the Wall Street Journal by none other than the United States government, Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his country’s official stance on the jet incident with Syria, saying that Washington is mistaken. Erdogan even went so far as to call the editors of the Wall Street Journal a bunch of cowards for not revealing their sources.
What is this guy smoking? I can understand his aggression towards Syria. But bad-mouthing Washington for telling the truth for once is crazy.
The good news is that there are sensible and wise people in Turkey who are asking Erdogan tough questions about the destructive path that he is taking Turkey on. Turkish journalist Koray Caliskan warned that Turkey is losing its prestige as the result of its recent belligerent actions against Syria in an article called, “Increasingly Isolated Turkey No Longer a Regional Model,” writing:
“So what happened to Turkey, the model country of the Middle East? Some Turkish newspapers are full of endless bragging of what we have achieved. But you don’t see any of that in Al-Hayat, As-Safir or Al-Ahram.
Read their columns. If you only knew what they say about us. Never mind taking Turkey as a model, they are making fun of us. They say Turkey is a country that tries to build democracy in another country before solving its own Kurdish problem, with illusions of Ottomanism and suffering from bouts of grandeur. Turkey is considered an ineffectual and conceited country that is arguing with all of its neighbors. They say we lost a plane and learned our limits.”
Turkey’s current leadership is losing popular support as well as international legitimacy. The writer “b” of the website ‘Moon of Alabama’ says that Erdogan’s internal opposition is rising to its feet and challenging his government’s policy towards Syria and long-term vision for Turkey:
“Meanwhile Erdogan’s political opposition is slowly waking up and infighting in Turkey about the current policies towards Syria has started.
The four mile buffer zone does matter much at the current state of the conflict in Syria. It will be again of interest once the insurgency is driven back to only hold that zone.
By then further pressure will have build up against Erdogan. His stance is already opposed by the Turkish public. His political opposition woke up. The U.S., which wants Assad weakened but not out, as well as Russia will continue their threats to uncover his claims about the jet downing as lies. As time passes his buffer zone threat will diminish.”
The confrontation between Turkey and Syria, initiated by Erdogan’s criminal government, has drawn in the PKK, a Kurdish guerrilla organization, that has been fighting the Turkish government for over three decades. The PKK is allying with the Syrian government and resisting the foreign-backed “Free Syrian Army,” (FSA).
Dr. Christof Lehmann, editor of the website nsnbc, explains the reasons why the Kurds in Syria are playing a patient game and have not sided with the largely Islamist FSA in his article, “Kurdish Fractions fight NATO-led Free Syrian Army”:
“Syrian Kurds have good reason to oppose the attempted subversion and stand in solidarity against the foreign backed insurgents which brand themselves Free Syrian Army. What is euphemistically called Free Syrian Army, is in fact a construct with a core consisting of US, NATO, GCC, and Turkish backed Al Qaeda brigades, armed brigades of the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as NATO, GCC, and Turkish Special Forces. The people as well as the political and military fractions of Kurdistan and Syria are aware of, that there is nothing good to be expected from the Free Syrian Army, and in particular, that there is nothing positive to be expected from Turkey, which contrary to Syria maintains a policy of rigorous oppression of Kurdish ethnicity, identity, culture and political influence.
The Syrian constitution provides exemplary protection of Syria´s many ethnic groups and minorities. It is unlikely that a NATO/GCC/Israel backed future government of Syria, and especially a potential government with strong ties to Turkey would provide the same guaranties of democratic rights and protection of ethnic minorities to the Syrian Kurdish population.
So far the strong allegiance of the ethnic Kurdish population to Syrian National Unity has contributed to relative calm and stability in predominantly ethnic Kurdish regions of Syria. A senior member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Syria, Nuri Brimo, expressed, that the Kurdish National Council, KNC, has decided not to get involved in the insurgency against the Syrian government and military and that the council has decided to keep ethnically Kurdish areas peaceful. Nuri Brimo said, that the KNC does not want events like the massacres in Daraa and Homs to be repeated in predominantly ethnically Kurdish cities. Brimo added that one day things may get out of control, but so far security and calm has prevailed.”
The unity of Syria has been a key factor in its resistance to NATO/GCC sponsored terrorism. But the future of the country is as uncertain as ever. Some have suggested that Erdogan will expand Turkey’s role in the conflict by playing the PKK card and use it to provide Turkish entry into Syria. If this happens, the end result for Turkey would be the destruction of its current political order and maybe even the loss of its territory to a Kurdish state.
Erdogan could pull other stunts to get a hot war with Syria going, as “b” of ‘Moon of Alabama’ points out:
“The one person that possibly could, and maybe still wants, to escalate is Erdogan. He certainly could provoke another incident like the jet shoot down and then declare war on Syria. But NATO is not with him and the leak by the U.S. government to the Wall Street Journal and earlier to the NYT about the correct location of the shoot down destroys Erdogan’s credibility and thereby his ability to get foreign backup for further steps.”
The response of the Syrian government to Turkey’s transgressions has been firm and consistent. There is little sign that the country will break up and crumble inward if the intensity of the conflict remains at the current level. Dr. Yekaterina Stepanova of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations says in an article called, “Why the World Prefers to Wait on Syria,” that the demise of the Syrian regime won’t be as painless and quick as it was in Libya. Here is an excerpt:
“The conflict has been oscillating between escalation and an asymmetrical stalemate, and the parties in Syria are far from the point where they are exhausted by the violence and ready to search for a genuine political solution. The armed opposition is unlikely to prevail or make radical advances on the ground in the foreseeable future, but it will persist and intensify its efforts. The government, meanwhile, cannot decisively quell the opposition through a combination of the use of force and belated and piecemeal reform. If things continue along the current path, the crisis will be bitter and protracted. The transformation or disintegration of the current power system in Syria, the last minoritarianism republican regime in the Middle East, will take longer than it did elsewhere in the region after the Arab Spring uprisings.”
The vitality, determination, and strength of the Syrian regime has startled foreign observers. The Syrian resistance against NATO, GCC, Israel, and their terrorist proxies shows no signs of stopping. But Washington wants Assad dead, and the regime gone, so we should be on the lookout for future acts of deception and aggression from the United States, England, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Israel.
Syria should be ready for anything coming its way.